USA Fed interest rate decision will be announced early in the morning

Fed interest rate decision will be announced early in the morning; since December 2015, although the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates repeatedly hinted to consider, but for various reasons has been delayed until now, for most economists expect the Fed will remain on hold this week, interest rates have to wait until December ; … Continue reading “USA Fed interest rate decision will be announced early in the morning”

Fed interest rate decision will be announced early in the morning; since December 2015, although the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates repeatedly hinted to consider, but for various reasons has been delayed until now, for most economists expect the Fed will remain on hold this week, interest rates have to wait until December ; former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers is listed six reasons not to raise interest rates; the Fed cut days or the economic and interest rate expectations, short-term weighed on the dollar; however, BNP Paribas and Barclays remain independent, bold bet on interest rates If one prophecy, material sharply boost the dollar put pressure on non-US currencies and gold. Forex trading market will affacted.

Fed rate hike, “sometime” this round will have to “grind” How long?

Fed rate hike sometime ? ?
Beijing on Thursday (September 22) 2:00 Fed interest rate decision will be announced in September, and issued a policy statement, followed by Federal Reserve Chairman Xi Yelun will hold a press conference; in December 2015 the Fed since 2006 first rate hike, but since then, the Fed has been on hold, at present the vast majority of the market economists expect the Fed will remain on hold this week.

Macroeconomic Pantheon (Pantheon Macroeconomics) chief economist Ian Shepherdson said the Fed is expected to raise interest rates will be a rather slow process; but in the policy, the Fed’s tricks is endless.

Once the forex market had expected, the Fed in March this round will be the second rate hike, but with the stock market crash, the market expected the Fed broken.

Subsequently, the Fed hinted strongly in April that it was considering raising interest rates in June, however, the weak May employment report once again forced the Fed to do anything.

Last month, Federal Reserve Chairman Xi Yelun annual meeting in Jackson Hole, a hike of reason has been enhanced. However, less than expected economic data released over the past few weeks, once again the market that the Fed remains near future is unlikely to take action.

? market this week is expected to raise interest rates fall boots difficult ?
Federal funds rate futures market data shows that the market expected the Fed to raise interest rates in September was 22% probability, the probability of rate hike in November was 28.7% in December hike probability of 59.7%.

Federal funds rate futures market to predict the probability of Fed rate hike
Fed rate hike, “sometime” this round will have to “grind” How long?

Reuters survey, the Fed meeting on 20-21 September rate hike probability is about 25%, than the interest rate futures market is only slightly higher than expected.

Survey of 62 economists this month’s “Wall Street Journal” shows that 74% of economists expect the Fed will delay raising interest rates until December.

The Economist newspaper Shearson lats (Jon Hilsenrath) said that despite the expected Fed will not raise interest rates in September, but in September the decision statement, the Fed may exhibit more optimism about economic prospects earlier this year Fed officials worry could impede the economic and employment growth in a range of issues, including market turmoil, Europe and so off Britain has dissipated.

? include former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers Federal Reserve should raise interest rates six reasons ?
Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers (Lawrence Summers) in a series of tweets that the Fed is not in session there are many reasons to raise interest rates in September, each of which can not alone constitute a reason to raise interest rates:

? The total number of hours worked in the United States over the past six months were flat to downward trend, inflation expectations falling, not rising;

? If the economic downturn, the Fed’s lack of response tools;

? vulnerable moment hike will shock the market; (and thus lead to unnecessary financial turmoil);

? Before accelerated inflation expectations, the Fed should get rid of the view that the Fed’s credibility now ask, in December or at any time to raise interest rates;

? now tightening policy will cause the dollar to artificially strong; (and thus not conducive to US exports);

? than hike better tools to deal with concerns about foam.

? this week, the Federal Reserve or revised their economic and interest rate expectations ?
Fed expected this week will announce the latest resolution bitmap – Federal Reserve officials expectations of future interest rates, ASA Securities, Merrill Lynch and Bank of Montreal, the Wall Street investment banks believe that the Federal Reserve will further cut interest rates expected, or its long-term federal funds rate target from 3% down to 2.75%; in turn weighed on the dollar may be short-term.

Fed rate hike, “sometime” this round will have to “grind” How long?

The Fed will last its long-term federal funds rate target at 2.75% in the 1960s, but when the US economic growth to be stronger than the current lot. However, for the current view, such a low interest rate cap would indicate that the Fed’s ability to grow in the future of the US economy is expected to become more pessimistic.

Just two years ago, the Fed is also expected that the US federal funds rate will eventually rise to about 3.75%, of course, with respect to the 2001–2007 economic growth recorded at the end of 5.25% of the peak is still much lower.

The current range for the federal funds rate from 0.25 to 0.5%, slightly higher than the historic low; the Fed bitmap may show the Fed will raise interest rates once a year only hope that, in addition to 2017 and 2018 to raise interest rates will decrease the number of times it is possible .

Bank of Montreal chief economist Douglas Porter said more telling is that the Fed’s federal funds rate will drop much compared to the previous bitmap, he expects, may fall by 25 basis points.

Nomura Securities is expected, “summary of economic expectations,” to be released on Wednesday, the United States almost certainly will be reduced to 2016 US economy is expected in 2016 the Fed might cut its forecast for US economic growth from 2 to 1.6%.

? BNP Paribas and Barclays bold bets hike ?
Just when everyone thought the Fed is on hold while a foregone conclusion, a US investment bank in 23 two – Barclays and BNP Paribas thinks the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this week is a high probability event, this is the first time since September last year, more than a consensus expected an investment banking and other investment banks have differences; if the two bodies forecast a prophecy, is expected to trigger a large number of short-term short stop, triggering long admission to significantly boost the dollar, gold and substantial pressure non-US currencies.

American economist at BNP Paribas in New York branch Rosner (Laura Rosner), said Yellen is likely biased by dovish stance of compromise measures, unanimous support for the hike, the measures include the “conciliatory language” down the terminal Federation funds rate and implied that no more rate hikes during the year; the Fed’s surprise move could cause turmoil in financial markets, but BNP Paribas Bank believes that as long as the same time hinted before March next year will not raise interest rates, and long-term interest rates, then this is not the case It will continue for a long time.

Barclays senior US economist Martin (Rob Martin) said it was the first time since December last year, Barclays expects the Fed will raise interest rates in September. This is the first investment banks and other consensus expectations of disagreement, is expected to raise interest rates in September because Barclays believe the message FOMC to give the market, namely the Jackson Hole conference on the Fed chairman and vice-chairmen issued hawkish remarks.

However, the last Barclays and BNP Paribas warned that the September rate hike and no rate hike is equally matched, currently still difficult to assert that easily, and their predictions are likely to be wrong.

Originally posted 2016-09-22 01:23:05.